Date of Original Version

11-22-2008

Type

Article

Published In

Annals of Operations Research (forthcoming)

Abstract or Table of Contents

The goal of this paper is to address the problem of evaluating the performance of a system running under unknown values for its stochastic parameters. A new approach called LAD for Simulation, based on simulation and classification software, is presented. It uses a number of simulations with very few replications and records the mean value of directly measurable quantities called observables. These observables are used as input to a classification model that produces a prediction for the performance of the system. Application to an assemble-to-order system from the literature is described and detailed results illustrate the strength of the method.