Date of Original Version
In S. Becker, S. Thrun, & K. Obermayer (Eds.), Advances in neural information processing systems 15. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003: 67-74.
Abstract or Table of Contents
Current psychological theories of human causal learning and judgment focus primarily on long-run predictions: two by estimating parameters of a causal Bayes nets (though for different parameterizations), and a third through structural learning. This paper focuses on people’s short-run behavior by examining dynamical versions of these three theories, and comparing their predictions to a real-world dataset.