Title
Estimating Latent Causal Influences: TETRAD III Variable Selection and Bayesian Parameter Estimation
Date of Original Version
2000
Type
Article
Published In
Handbook of Data Mining, Pat Hayes, editor, Oxford University Press, 2000.
Abstract or Table of Contents
The statistical evidence for the detrimental effect of exposure to low levels of lead on the cognitive capacities of children has been debated for several decades. In this paper I describe how two techniques from artificial intelligence and statistics help make the statistical evidence for the accepted epidemiological conclusion seem decisive. The first is a variable-selection routine in TETRAD III for finding causes, and the second a Bayesian estimation of the parameter reflecting the causal influence of Actual Lead Exposure, a latent variable, on the measured IQ score of middle class suburban children.