Authors

Title

Using Models that Incorporate Uncertainty

Date of Original Version

2002

Type

Working Paper

Abstract or Description

What does a practicing policy analyst need to know about using models that incorporate uncertainty? One could write volumes focusing only on models that produce specific numeric forecasts (as opposed to conceptual models that address uncertainty qualitatively). But in the 21st century sound bites are more useful. In short: The world is uncertain; but sampling variability isn’t the driver; and so there is no excuse not to simulate. The real challenge, though, is to communicate effectively about models that incorporate uncertainty.