Copyright (c) 2013 Carnegie Mellon University All rights reserved. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp Recent documents in Department of Engineering and Public Policy en-us Sat, 26 Jan 2013 12:17:29 PST 3600 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/134 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/134 Wed, 07 Jul 2010 12:10:49 PDT The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the major trends taking place in the automotive industry across the world, with an emphasis on the Asian market. It is not a comprehensive report, but rather an informed view of the issues and a panorama of the behavior of the major players, both automakers and suppliers. In the final section, the paper presents some suggestions on how to measure firm competitiveness in this fast moving industry, focusing on automotive suppliers, particularly the smaller ones that make up most of the local autoparts industry in Asia.

]]> Francisco Veloso et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/133 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/133 Wed, 07 Jul 2010 12:10:48 PDT This paper uses a unique data set of Mexican researchers to explore the determinants of research productivity. Our findings confirm a quadratic relationship between age and productivity. However, productivity peaks when researchers are approximately 53 years old, 5 or 10 years later than what prior studies have shown. These results suggest that age is not very important in terms of research productivity. We also find that reputation matters for the number of citations but not publications. Results also show great heterogeneity across areas of knowledge. Interpretations of other aspects, such as gender, country of PhD, cohort effect, among others, are also discussed.

]]> Claudia Gonzalez-Brambila et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/132 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/132 Wed, 07 Jul 2010 12:10:47 PDT Recent reports suggest that, during the 1990s, the EU15 overcame the US as the world largest scientific producing block. In this paper we perform a comprehensive comparative analysis of the evolution of the EU15 and US scientific output and impact throughout the 1990s looking at publications and impact trends by scientific field. Results show that changes of scientific production between the two blocks are associated with a set of scientific fields which grew or declined at a fast rate in the decade. During this period, the EU15 had eight fields of science growing above 10% in relation to the average of the world, corresponding to a 13% of the total papers published, while the US had only four fast growing fields, representing 6% of total output. The situation was exactly reverse for the decline, with the US having more than double the number of scientific fields and relative weight declining above 10% compared to the EU15. Despite this change, the US maintains a distant leadership in impact across all scientific fields. A detailed analysis of the EU15 countries shows some convergence in terms of outputs and impact, but considerable differences among countries remain. These reflect the evolution, not only of their science, technology and higher education systems, but also their integration in the international science system.

]]> Hugo Horta et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/131 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/131 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:48:24 PDT This study aims at a better understanding of how firms arrange and profit from their technological competencies. In particular, it presents a contribution to the diversification-performance literature by dealing with a still poorly researched aspect of diversification, namely technological diversification, while controlling for market diversification. Results suggest that firms that concentrate their technology assets in coherent groups outperform those that distribute their technology endowments across less related areas. The research also contributes to the literature on firm heterogeneity by focusing and exploring a single industry, automotive suppliers in the U.S. By working in one sector, it avoids the complications inherent in inter-industry cross-sectional analysis, while recognizing that firms make their strategy decisions within a single-industry, where most of their resources are concentrated.

]]> Patrick P. Steinemann et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/130 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/130 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:48:23 PDT Attention to processes has increased, as thousands of organizations have adopted processfocused practices, including TQM and ISO 9000. Proponents of such programs stress the promise of improved efficiency and profitability. But research has not consistently borne out these prospects. Moreover, the expectation of universal benefits is not consistent with research highlighting the important role of firm-specific capabilities in sustaining competitive advantage. In this paper, we use longitudinal panel data for firms in the auto supplier industry to study two new issues. First, we find that, with the majority of firms within an industry adopting process management practices, late adopters no longer gain financial benefits from these practices. Second, we explore how firm technological capabilities moderate the performance advantages of process management. We find that firms that are very narrowly- or broadly- oriented have fewer opportunities for complementary interactions that arise from process management practices and thus benefit less than those with limited breadth in technologically related activities.

]]> Mary Benner et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/129 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/129 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:48:22 PDT Many US firms are improving their individual competitiveness by offshoring manufacturing operations, services and, increasingly, knowledge work. Although research to date has maintained that these practices are beneficial to the offshoring firm and national economies, by reducing costs and expanding markets, little is known about the longer term effect of offshoring on the rate of innovation of home economies. This paper suggests that offshoring practices have adverse effects on innovation at the national home base. The analysis uses patents in the rare earth element industry, a high tech area which is among those that have evolved the furthest towards outsourcing and relocation away from the US and to developing countries. Looking at the rare earth industry can provide insights in identifying potential long term impacts of offshoring on innovation because many other US industries are likely to adopt similar offshoring strategies.

]]> Brian J. Fifarek et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/128 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/128 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:48:22 PDT This paper describes how firms’ propensity to carry out component (or architectural) innovation is influenced by the degree of task uncertainty during inter-firm product development. Using successfully applied patents in automobile emission control technologies from 1970 to 1998; this research shows that assemblers’ and suppliers’ propensity to expand their knowledge base in component and architectural knowledge increased under higher task uncertainty respectively. This finding provides large scale empirical justification for theoretical claim that firms’ should know more than what they make (Brusoni, Prencipe et al, 2001) and an overlap in knowledge domain exists between an assembler and a supplier for projects involving new technologies (Takeishi 2002). Importantly, this study also shows how architectural innovation prevails in the early phase of technological changes, while component innovation dominates the later stages. Furthermore, unlike what could be anticipated, total assemblers’ effort to build up inhouse component innovation increases continuously over time, suggesting that product life cycle effects may dominate over that of task uncertainties. This paper strongly suggests that effective knowledge management for both architectural and component knowledge is a key factor influencing firms’ competitiveness in the inter-firm product developments.

]]> Jaegul Lee et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/127 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/127 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:48:21 PDT We present evidence that importing is a source of international technology transfer. Using a detailed panel of Indonesian manufacturers, our analysis shows that firms in industries supplying increasingly import-intensive sectors have higher productivity growth than other firms. This finding suggests that linkages through vertical supply relationships are the channel through which import-driven technology transfer occurs. To our knowledge, these are the first firm-level results showing that downstream imports play a role in productivity gains. Together with the literature linking FDI and exporting to technology spillovers, the results provide a third component to the argument that trade and openness promote economic growth.

]]> Garrick Blalock et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/126 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/126 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:13:43 PDT The recent phase of power sector reforms has focused on distribution reforms, under the APDRP, and Information Technology (IT) is seen as a savior for the power industry, whereby advanced technologies such as digital metering will bring in much greater efficiency, theft reduction, and collection. While somewhat true, it is important to recognize that not all IT based solutions are equal, and poor designs can hamper longterm benefits. We present some analysis and results looking at different technologies and systems in the Indian context. In particular, we highlight some non-IT issues relating to reforms and tariff design that impact on IT’s potential and pitfalls. A full “smart” system will offer long-term benefits beyond simply theft reduction, and should be the focus of planners, analysts, and industry.

]]> Rahul Tongia http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/125 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/125 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:13:42 PDT This paper examines some of the causes of poor connectivity in developing countries, and suggests options for overcoming the so-termed digital divide. Based on a techno-economic analysis of connectivity technologies and design, I show that technical limitations per se are not the bottleneck for widespread connectivity; rather, design, policy, and regulatory challenges are the reasons for high costs (which determines penetration to a large extent). The first part of this paper deals with the “digital divide” and a brief look at existing measures and difficulties with such measures, such as issues of granularity. I present a starting point for a new framework for the digital divide, based on what we call the 4Cs of Information and Communications Technology (ICT): Computers, Connectivity, Content, and (human) Capacity. The next section focuses on the Connectivity aspect of ICT, and examines cost components of different technologies. While there are obvious differences between technologies in terms of speeds, reach, and infrastructure, there are non-technical implications of such choices, such as legacy requirements, competition, leapfrogging, etc. Once we formulate a basic, indicative, network design for broadband, using estimated costs and some limited real-world emerging economy data, we can see what reasons there are for higher costs (and prices) than the model would indicate. We identify over a dozen policy add-ons (such as ISP licensing, spectrum fees, taxes, limits on applications such as VoIP, etc.) that raise the costs to end-users. Expanding from the idealized model, I also present a new design for broadband across Africa (“FiberAfrica”) based on GIS modeling and a bottom-up design. This is not an idealized model but a first attempt at a hypothetical continental network based on available data. It not only includes appropriate technologies (optical fibers and fixed broadband wireless) but also innovative business models such as open access networks. The analysis shows such a design could bring affordable, accessible broadband to the majority of Africans, for a one-time capital cost of only a little over $1/capita.

]]> Rahul Tongia http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/124 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/124 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:13:41 PDT The digital divide is a pressing challenge for both technology and policy professionals. Connectivity is one aspect of the divide, albeit an important one. Availability and affordability remain important issues, but these depend on not only technology choices, but also business and regulatory models. While mobile phones have achieved spectacular growth in emerging regions, Internet access, especially broadband, lags far behind. A generalized model of costing broadband indicates that limited uplinking (interconnection) is a significant barrier to widespread and affordable connectivity, but last mile access also remains a challenge. In addition, policy distortions and regulations raise costs dramatically. Because of these, new technologies, business models, and regulations may be required to make connectivity available and affordable in emerging economies. These include advanced wireless technologies, greater fiber utilization, and open access networking.

]]> Rahul Tongia http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/123 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/123 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:13:40 PDT There must be few other situations where there are eager purchasers of natural gas (India and Pakistan), willing suppliers of natural gas (Turkmenistan, Iran, Qatar and Oman), and yet, no pipeline. The distances involved are modest, and techno-economic viability appears straightforward. This paper examines in detail the policy, technology, and economics of an overland pipeline supplying natural gas to Pakistan and India. Such a pipeline would be shared by both countries, and would represent a unique opportunity for cooperation.† As pipelines exhibit significant economies of scale, a shared pipeline would offer the lowest price natural gas for both countries. Pakistani consumers would obtain cheaper gas than from a lower capacity pipeline for their exclusive use, also benefiting from transit fees paid by Indian consumers. An alternative to land-based pipelines through Pakistan for India would be liquefied natural gas, which is more expensive due to the capital-intensive nature of the liquefaction process. However, any overland gas pipeline does not depend solely on economic viability, but on political acceptance as well. This study addresses some of the potential concerns, briefly discussing options for overcoming security of supply worries. Through cooperating on such a venture, one that offers the promise of significantly helping to build the infrastructure of both countries, there is the possibility of the neighboring countries becoming partners in progress, instead of languishing as prisoners of geography.

]]> Rahul Tongia et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/121 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/121 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:13:39 PDT This paper presents the development of DeSIGN, an educational software application for those deaf students who are taught to communicate using American Sign Language (ASL). The software reinforces English vocabulary and ASL signs by providing two essential components of a tutor, lessons and tests. The current version was designed for 5th and 6th graders, whose literacy skills lag by a grade or more on average. In addition, a game that allows the students to be creative has been integrated into the tests. Another feature of DeSIGN is its ability to intelligently adapt its tests to the changing knowledge of the student as determined by a knowledge tracing algorithm. A separate interface for the teacher enables additions and modifications to the content of the tutor and provides progress monitoring. These dynamic aspects help motivate the students to use the software repeatedly. This software prototype aims at a feasible and sustainable approach to increase the participation of deaf people in society. DeSIGN has undergone an iteration of testing and is currently in use at a school for the deaf in Pittsburgh.

]]> Ling Xu et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/122 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/122 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:13:39 PDT India's nuclear power program is based on indigenous materials and technology, with the potential for providing energy security for many centuries. This paper examines the technical validity of this plan, specifically the role of breeder reactors for extending the domestic uranium supplies. Our study shows breeding is unlikely to occur at anywhere near the rates envisioned, leading to a slow growth of fast breeder reactors. In addition, domestic uranium reserves restrict growth of Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs), which are likely to be the main contributors to nuclear capacity in the short-term. The Th-U233 cycle in fast breeders does not appear attractive, and, for the U238-Pu cycle, only metallic fuel offers hope of rapid increase in available fissile material. To increase the share of nuclear power in the coming decades, India should consider the construction of a number of large thermal reactors based on indigenous and imported uranium.

]]> Rahul Tongia et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/120 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/120 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:13:37 PDT Most studies of the digital divide and network connectivity begin by asking how many people are in a network, and what are the network effects associated. We flip the framing by using on the excluded instead of the included. We find, looking at Metcalfe’s Law, Reed’s Law, and other network “Laws” that all of them provide a techno-optimistic view of increasing network value and penetration, when, in reality, the excluded face increasing costs of exclusion. In fact, our simple model shows that the costs of exclusion rise faster than the growth of the network, and are approximately exponential. In addition to such a framing, we introduce ideas of exclusion across multiple networks, which could be considered multiple layers or dimensions of a broader connectivity graph. This initiates the groundwork for further theoretical and empirical analysis on network exclusion, combined with the policy implications of increasing costs of network exclusion.

]]> Rahul Tongia et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/119 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/119 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:13:27 PDT In this paper, we make the case that ICT projects in the developed and developing world often lead to partial or total failures due to the incomplete assessment of the problem being solved and the metrics used to evaluate solutions. While in the developed world the success of ICT solutions are often determined by the market, with available infrastructure and market mechanisms, in the developing world this ecosystem does not exist thus requiring an understanding of the ecosystem in which ICT solutions are to be applied. Using literature from the design space, and experiences in ICT for development, we elaborate the dimensions of design such as incorporation of stakeholders, incentive structures, and design participation that are critical to successful deployment. We examine some successes and failures in product/solution development in the ICT area to identify the dimensions of good design incorporated by these products and services. With the perspective that ICT for sustainable development issues are ill-structured and "wicked problems" that have to incorporate all the defined dimensions of design, we propose a model of product and service identification and development that is based on insights from asynchronous computational agent problem solving. We claim that new methods such as the one proposed need to be identified, developed and tested for their effectiveness in the development of products and services that satisfy the needs of human development

]]> Rahul Tongia et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/118 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/118 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 10:13:26 PDT The practice of having PhDs employed by the university that trained them, commonly called "academic inbreeding" has long been assumed to have a damaging effect on scholarly practices and achievement. Despite this perception, existing work on academic inbreeding is scarce and mostly descriptive or speculative. In this research we show, first, that academic inbreeding can be damaging to scholarly output. Our estimates suggest that academically inbred faculty generate on average 15% less peer reviewed publications than their non-inbred counterparts. Second, academically inbred faculty are more centered in their own institution and less open to the rest of the scientific world. In particular, we estimate that they are about 40% less likely to exchange information of critical relevance to their scholarly work with external colleagues. Third, academic inbreeding appears to be detrimental to scientific output even in leading research universities. Overall, our analysis implies that administrators and policy makers aiming to develop a thriving research environment in universities should seriously consider mechanisms to limit this practice. It also explores the role, importance and mechanisms by which outsiders contribute to create a dynamic and creative environment in knowledge intensive settings.

]]> Hugo Horta et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/117 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/117 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 08:58:59 PDT The digital divide, however defined, is a stark divide and a challenge for development and technology professionals. Many groups and governments have recognized this, and the UN devoted a global conference on this issue, the World Summit on the Information Society.5 It is actually a manifestation of other underlying divides, spanning economic, social, geographic, gender, and other divides.6 This note focuses on connectivity for developing countries, especially Africa, even though there are divides within developed countries. Here, we introduce several ideas—some of which have also been postulated in variants by others—for how to end much of the digital divide (at least the connectivity aspect). In particular, we present a proposal, dubbed FiberAfrica, to bring affordable and sustainable broadband to Africa [details on FiberAfrica begin on page 13]. We show how for just about $1/person one-time capital costs, the majority of Africans could avail of (virtually) free data connectivity within walking or cycling distance

]]> Rahul Tongia http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/116 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/116 Thu, 01 Jul 2010 13:49:09 PDT The objective of this research is to develop, implement, and demonstrate a capability for evaluating performance and cost uncertainties in integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems. While traditional approaches to technolo-gy modeling and decision making may be appro-priate for well-established, commercial technology, they are inadequate as a basis for research planning for technologies in early stages of research and development. A probabilistic evaluation method-ology, and the required software capabilities, are developed for the ASPEN simulator. The method is applied to detailed case studies.

]]> Edward S. Rubin et al. http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/115 http://repository.cmu.edu/epp/115 Thu, 01 Jul 2010 13:49:08 PDT H. Christopher Frey et al.